From October 21, 2021 to January 9, 2022, a research team from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) and the Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVoter) conducted a nationally representative survey of 4,619 Indian adults (18+). The study was designed to investigate the Indian public’s climate change awareness, beliefs, policy support, and behavior, as well as perceptions of local weather and climate patterns and vulnerability to extreme weather events.
The first report based on this survey, Climate Change in the Indian Mind, 2022, examined the climate attitudes of the Indian population as a whole. This second report identifies and describes differences among subgroups of the Indian public by conducting an audience segmentation analysis based on people’s global warming beliefs, risk perceptions, and behaviors. This analysis identifies four unique audiences within the Indian population – Global Warming’s Four Indias – that each respond to global warming in their own distinct way.
The segmentation analysis identified four unique global warming audiences in India: The Alarmed, the Concerned, the Cautious, and the Disengaged. The majority of the Indian population are Alarmed (54%) – the group most aware and convinced of the reality and danger of global warming. The Concerned (29%) are also convinced global warming is happening and a serious threat, but know less about it and view it as a less immediate threat than do the Alarmed. While both the Alarmed and Concerned support political and national action to address global warming and are motivated to take individual action, the Alarmed are the most supportive of taking action and motivated to do it. The two smaller segments are the Cautious (11%) and Disengaged (7%), which reflect different stages of understanding, acceptance, and engagement with global warming. The Cautious think global warming is happening but are less certain of the causes and are less likely to view it as a serious, immediate threat that will personally affect them. They support climate and energy policies but are less supportive of national action and less motivated to take individual action compared with the Alarmed and Concerned. The Disengaged know very little about global warming, rarely or never engage with the issue, and often say they don’t know or provide no response to questions about it.
Average margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 1.4 percentage points for the full sample. Margins of error for the four audience segments are: Alarmed +/- 1.9 percentage points; Concerned +/- 2.7 percentage points; Cautious +/- 4.6 percentage points; and Disengaged +/- 5.2 percentage points.
Among the key findings in this report:
Global Warming Awareness and Beliefs
- The Alarmed feel the most knowledgeable about global warming, with half (50%) saying they know at least “something” about it. Majorities of the Concerned (60%) and Cautious (75%) say they either know “just a little about it” or “have never heard of it.” Few of the Disengaged (11%) say they know at least “something” about global warming, while more (42%) say they either know “just a little about it” or “have never heard of it.”
- Nearly all of the Alarmed (92%) and Concerned (88%) think global warming is happening, as do a majority of the Cautious (66%). In contrast, only 30% of the Disengaged think global warming is happening.
- Most of the Alarmed (70%) and about half of the Concerned (51%) think global warming is caused mostly by human activities. In contrast, the Cautious are more likely to think global warming is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment (47%) than by human activities (33%). The Disengaged are the least likely to think global warming is caused mostly by human activities (13%) or by natural changes in the environment (13%).
- The Alarmed report the highest level of personal experience with global warming: 86% agree that they have personally experienced its effects, including 72% who “strongly agree.” Majorities of the Concerned (75%) and Cautious (54%), but few of the Disengaged (8%), agree they have personally experienced the effects of global warming.
- The Disengaged are the segment most likely to say they don’t know or to not express an opinion when asked questions about their global warming awareness and beliefs (ranging from 47% to 90% across questions).
Global Warming Risk Perceptions
- Nearly all of the Alarmed (94%) say they are worried about global warming, including 79% who are “very worried.” A large majority of the Concerned (86%) also say they are worried about global warming (17% “very worried”). Fewer of the Cautious (41%) say they are worried about global warming, while about half (52%) say they are not worried about it. Only one in five (20%) of the Disengaged say they are worried about global warming.
- The Alarmed are the most likely to view global warming as a near-term risk that will personally affect them and their family, their local community, and the nation. For example, a majority of the Alarmed think global warming is harming Indians right now (62%), while fewer of the Concerned (43%), Cautious (25%), and Disengaged (3%) think so. Additionally, nearly all of the Alarmed say global warming will cause harm to people in their community (93%), but fewer of the Concerned (63%), Cautious (36%), and Disengaged (4%) say so.
- The Alarmed and Concerned are the most likely to think global warming will cause more dangerous impacts in India over the next 20 years, including more disease epidemics (Alarmed, 86%; Concerned, 77%) and severe heat waves (84% and 73%). Fewer of the Cautious think global warming will cause more disease epidemics (52%) or severe heat waves (46%). Very few of the Disengaged think global warming will cause more disease epidemics (6%) or severe heat waves (5%).
- The Disengaged are the segment most likely to say they don’t know or to not express an opinion when asked questions about their global warming risk perceptions (ranging from 75% to 99% across questions).
Support for Climate and Energy Policies
- Majorities of the Alarmed, Concerned, and Cautious favor several climate and energy policies. The most favored policies across these three segments include developing a national program to teach Indians about global warming (91%, 88%, and 74%, respectively), developing a national program to train people for renewable energy jobs (90%, 88%, and 75%), and encouraging local communities to build check dams to increase local water supplies (89%, 89%, and 75%). Few of the Disengaged favor these climate and energy policies (ranging from 8% to 12% across policies).
- Majorities of the Alarmed (82%), Concerned (77%), and Cautious (66%) say they favor India’s participation in the Paris Climate Agreement, while only 8% of the Disengaged say so.
- Majorities of the Alarmed (74%) and Concerned (64%), and half of the Cautious (50%), say the Indian government should be doing more to address global warming, while few of the Disengaged (6%) say so.
- Majorities of the Alarmed (62%) and Concerned (56%), but just under half of the Cautious (47%) and few of the Disengaged (7%), say India should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions immediately without waiting for other countries.
- The Alarmed are the most supportive of India’s transition to renewable energy – most say India should use more renewable energy (68%), including 52% who say India should use “much more” renewable energy. Most of the Concerned (58%) also say India should use more renewable energy, but the Cautious (45%) and Disengaged (7%) are less likely to say so. Similarly, the Alarmed (64%) are the most likely to say India should use less fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal, gas), followed by 51% of the Concerned, 37% of the Cautious, and 9% of the Disengaged.
- About half of the Alarmed (52%), and less than half of the Concerned (45%), say that taking action to limit global warming will improve economic growth and provide new jobs, while fewer of the Cautious (35%) and Disengaged (5%) say so.
- The Disengaged are the segment most likely to say they don’t know or to not express an opinion when asked questions about national action on global warming in India and their support for climate and energy policies (ranging from 86% to 91% across questions).
Personal and Social Engagement with Global Warming
- The Alarmed and Concerned are the audiences most engaged with global warming. Most of the Alarmed (59%) and Concerned (55%) say they hear about global warming in the media at least once a month, while just under half of the Cautious (46%) and about one in ten (9%) of the Disengaged say so.
- Majorities of the Alarmed (78%), Concerned (75%), and Cautious (60%) say they would join a citizens’ campaign to convince leaders in India to take action on global warming, including large percentages who say they “definitely would” join such a campaign (Alarmed, 66%; Concerned, 55%; Cautious, 47%). By contrast, only 7% of the Disengaged say they would join such a campaign.
- Nearly all of the Alarmed (94%) and Concerned (96%), and just over half of the Cautious (55%), say global warming is at least “somewhat important” to them personally, while few of the Disengaged (7%) say so.
- The Disengaged are the segment most likely to say they don’t know or to not express an opinion when asked questions about their engagement with global warming (ranging from 87% to 91% across questions).
Local Weather Events: Observations, Vulnerabilities, and Resilience
- Most people in India have noticed changes in local weather. Majorities in all four segments say the average amount of rainfall in their local area has changed (increased or decreased) over the past 10 years (Alarmed, 78%; Concerned, 76%; Cautious, 70%; Disengaged, 65%). Additionally, majorities of the Alarmed (73%), Concerned (68%), and Cautious (62%), and many of the Disengaged (41%) have noticed changes in monsoon predictability (becoming more or less predictable) compared to the past.
- People in India – particularly the Alarmed – say they have noticed an increase in hot days. The majority of the Alarmed (65%) say hot days have become more frequent in their local area compared to the past, while 48% of the Concerned and 37% of both the Cautious and Disengaged say so.
- Many people in India likely face challenges in their capacity to recover from extreme weather events. Majorities of the Alarmed (78%), Concerned (77%), and Cautious (65%) say it would take their household several months to several years to recover from a severe drought, as do 43% of the Disengaged. Similarly, majorities of the Alarmed (68%), Concerned (64%), and Cautious (52%) say it would take several months to several years for their household to recover from a severe flood, as do 39% of the Disengaged.
- Many people in India also face financial and social support challenges. Over half of the Alarmed (54%), Concerned (56%), and Cautious (57%) say their income does not cover their needs and they have difficulties, and about one in three (32%) of the Disengaged say so. When asked how many relatives and friends they could count on if they were in trouble and needed help, majorities of the Alarmed (68%), Concerned (68%), and Cautious (61%), and about one in three of the Disengaged (35%), say they have five or fewer relatives and friends they could count on.
- The Disengaged are more likely than the other segments to say they don’t know or to not express an opinion when asked questions about the weather and potential challenges they may experience (ranging from 12% to 58% across questions).
Demographics and Social Characteristics
- There is a greater proportion of females (76%) among the Disengaged compared with the Alarmed (46%), Concerned (46%), and Cautious (43%).
- Each segment includes a majority of adults ages 18–44 (Alarmed, 71%; Concerned, 68%; Cautious, 62%; Disengaged, 63%).
- The Alarmed and Concerned have the highest levels of education and monthly family income among the segments:
- 41% of the Alarmed and 29% of the Concerned have at least a higher secondary education, compared with 14% of the Cautious and 21% of the Disengaged.
- 18% of the Alarmed, 12% of the Concerned, 11% of the Cautious, and 7% of the Disengaged earn a monthly family income of 50,000 Rupees or more.
- The Disengaged earn the lowest average monthly income, including 20% who say they earn less than 3,000 Rupees monthly.
- The Alarmed (32%) are more likely than the Concerned (27%) and Cautious (26%) to live in urban areas, while the Concerned (58%) and Cautious (61%) are more likely than the Alarmed (52%) to live in rural areas. The Alarmed (16%), Concerned (15%), and Cautious (13%) have similar proportions of people living in semi-urban areas, while the Disengaged are the most likely to live in semi-urban areas (26%) and the least likely to live in rural areas (45%).
Household Characteristics
- The Alarmed (43%) are more likely than the Concerned (39%), Cautious (32%), and Disengaged (14%) to live in a pucca independent house (a house made with modern materials like brick and cement).
- The Alarmed are more likely than the other segments to have the following household amenities.
- Air conditioning: Alarmed (16%), Concerned (11%), Cautious (9%), Disengaged (1%).
- Internet access: Alarmed (71%), Concerned (64%), Cautious (53%), Disengaged (24%).
- Access to improved water sources (e.g., tap water, protected wells): Alarmed (86%), Concerned (83%), Cautious (78%), Disengaged (44%).
- The Disengaged are more likely than the other segments to say they don’t know or to not provide a response to questions about their households (ranging from 54% to 57% across questions).