Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

We are pleased to announce the publication of a new article, “Variations in Climate Change Belief Systems Across 110 Geographic Areas” in Nature Climate Change.

Think of climate change beliefs like trees in a forest — no single tree stands alone. Just as trees share root systems and create interconnected ecosystems, our climate beliefs form networks of concepts that support and influence each other. By studying the “forest” of beliefs rather than isolated “trees,” we can gain useful insights. We can see which belief clusters have deep, intertwined roots (making them harder to change) and which have shallow connections (making them easier to change). 

Using network analysis on a global survey conducted in 2022 (n = 99,074 participants), we constructed maps of climate change belief systems across 110 geographic areas worldwide. Our analysis focused on two key structural features: density (the overall strength of connections between climate beliefs) and inconsistency (conflicts between beliefs). The belief systems included eight key elements covering climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy attitudes.

First, we examined the belief systems of nine countries, representing different continental regions. As Figure 1 illustrates, Global North countries such as the United States, Australia, and Germany hold denser climate belief systems, while Global South countries have relatively looser climate belief systems. For instance, in Germany, individuals who believe climate change is caused by human activities are also likely to worry about climate change. In contrast, such connections are absent or weaker in countries like Guatemala and Brazil.

It is also noteworthy that inconsistency (dashed lines representing negative correlations in Figure 1) is present in some countries such as the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria. A subsequent analysis reveals that inconsistency is more likely in geographic areas where people object to reducing the use of fossil fuels. This objection likely conflicts with other climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support. For instance, people are likely to exhibit inconsistency in their climate change belief system when they support renewable energy while also opposing reduction in fossil fuel use.

In the Global North—like Europe, the U.S., and Australia—climate beliefs are tightly connected (high density) but sometimes sharply divided: many areas exhibit strong pro-climate beliefs and attitudes, while others indicate more resistance than other geographic areas. In contrast, the Global South—including Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean—leans more pro-climate overall, but the connections between beliefs are weaker (low density). Meanwhile, in the Middle East and North Africa, most areas have weaker pro-climate beliefs and attitudes relative to other regions, and the density of belief systems varies between high and low across countries in the region.

We also investigated how geographic characteristics — climate change information exposure, GDP per capita, economic reliance on carbon resources (coal, oil, and gas), and education level predict belief system density and inconsistency. The results indicate that exposure to information and GDP per capita are positively associated with density. In other words, belief systems are denser in wealthier areas where people are more exposed to climate change information.

Moreover, we found that economic reliance on carbon resources predicts belief system inconsistency. These findings indicate that geographic areas more dependent on coal, oil, or gas as economic resources have greater climate change belief system inconsistency.

Overall, our research reveals how climate change belief systems vary around the world, and the value of considering belief structures and socio-economic context when developing climate communication strategies. 

The full article with many other findings is available here to those with a subscription to Nature Climate Change. If you would like to request a copy of the published paper, please send an email to climatechange@yale.edu with the subject line: Request belief systems paper. Or, a preprint version is available here.