Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

We are pleased to announce new Climate Opinion Maps for India that reveal how Indians’ extreme weather experiences, risk perceptions, and causal beliefs vary across 34 states and Union territories and 634 districts. 

With over 1.4 billion people, India is the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and one of the most climate-vulnerable nations. In 2024, India experienced extreme weather events on 322 days — almost 90% of the year. However, Indians’ direct experience with extreme weather and their beliefs about climate change’s role in these events differ substantially across the country. 

Key Takeaways

• Majorities of Indians have experienced heat waves (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (59%), electricity power outages (59%), water pollution (53%), droughts and water shortages (52%), and severe air pollution (51%) in the past 12 months. But experience with extreme weather or related impacts varies across the country.
• A majority of Indians think global warming is affecting extreme weather events.
• Climate change beliefs are consistent across India. When provided a short definition, 96% of Indians think global warming is happening, with no districts below 90%.

Personal Experience with Extreme Weather

Majorities of Indians have experienced severe heat waves (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (59%), electricity power outages (59%), water pollution (53%), droughts and water shortages (52%), and severe air pollution (51%) in the past 12 months. More than one-third of Indians have experienced severe storms (41%), famines and food shortages (38%), severe cyclones (35%), and severe floods (34%). 

Personal experience with extreme weather varies across the country. In many northern Indian states, such as Rajasthan, Delhi, and Haryana, more than 75% say they have experienced severe heat waves compared to just over half in Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the south (Fig. 1). Research has found that these areas in northwest India are particularly prone to heat waves and heat stress (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Similarly, while only 35% of Indians nationwide have experienced a severe cyclone, 64% ofpeople in Odisha have, which was hit hard by Cyclone Dana in October 2024 (Fig. 2). More than two-thirds of people in Odisha also have experienced droughts and water shortages (Fig. 2). Odisha is particularly susceptible to extreme weather and experiences droughts almost every year. 

By contrast, in coastal states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and mountainous and forested states like Chandigarh and Punjab, fewer than 40% say they have experienced droughts and water shortages in the past year.

Climate Change Attribution Beliefs

Majorities of adults across the country think global warming is affecting extreme weather events and related impacts, including extinctions of plant and animal species (81%), severe heat waves (78%), agricultural pests and diseases (78%), droughts and water shortages (77%), severe air pollution (76%), water pollution (74%), famines and food shortages (74%), severe cyclones (73%), monsoons (71%), severe floods (70%), severe storms (70%), and electricity power outages (65%). 

Most Indians think global warming is affecting extreme weather events, even when they haven’t personally experienced them. For example, 74% of adults in Tamil Nadu think global warming is affecting severe storms, although only 21% say they have personally experienced a severe storm in the past 12 months (Fig. 3). In Rajasthan, 70% of adults think global warming is affecting severe floods, although only 28% say they have recently experienced one (Fig. 3). 

Research shows that personal experience is not the only factor that shapes public attribution of extreme weather events to global warming – other factors like political affiliation can sometimes play an important role. However, climate change beliefs in India are not politically polarized as they are in the US — 96% of Indians nationally, and no fewer than 90% in any district, think global warming is happening when provided a short definition — compared with 45% to 89% across US counties. More Indians (81%) also say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming, compared to 49% in the US.

As India develops economically and prepares for extreme weather, communicators must explain the cause-and-effect relationship between burning fossil fuels and dangerous weather. Mapping Indians’ beliefs about and experiences of climate change and extreme weather can support climate adaptation and sustainable development. And a better understanding of how public opinion in India differs across states and districts can help leaders prepare stronger state and district climate action plans. 

Explore opinions across India using our interactive mapping tool.

Methods

The estimates in the maps are derived from a statistical model using multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP), which combines survey data from 2022 through 2025 (n>19,000, Fig. 4) with demographic and geographic population characteristics, including gender, age, caste, urbanicity, education, and climate vulnerability, and uses Indian census counts to spatially weight results (Howe et al. 2015; Mildenberger et al. 2016; 2017). Uncertainty ranges are based on 95% confidence intervals using bootstrap simulations, indicating that the model is accurate to approximately ±6 percentage points at the state level, and ±8 percentage points at the district level. Such error ranges include the error inherent in the original national surveys themselves, which is typically ±3 percentage points. See the Methodology and Survey Question Wording tabs for more information.