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Hurricane Attitudes of Coastal Connecticut Residents: A Segmentation Analysis to Support Communication


Future Evacuation Behavior

Intended Evacuation Behavior (Categories 1-4)

Evacuation behavior varies substantially by segment. Intended evacuation is highest among the First Out and lowest among the Diehards for all hurricane strengths. As expected, the number of residents who say they would evacuate increases with storm strength. For a Category 1 hurricane, 44% of the First Out say they would definitely or probably evacuate, whereas only 2% of the Diehards say they would evacuate. For a Category 4 hurricane, however, 94% of the First Out, and 46% of the Diehards say they would definitely/probably evacuate. The Optimists are often more likely than the Constrained to say they would evacuate. For example, for a Category 3 hurricane (Categories 3 and 4 are considered “major” hurricanes), 84% of the Optimists say they would definitely/probably evacuate, whereas only 55% of the Constrained say this.

Likelihood of evacuating for a Category 1 hurricane by segment

Question: How likely is it that you would evacuate if the following were forecast to hit your local area?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Likelihood of evacuating for a Category 2 hurricane by segment
Likelihood of evacuating for a Category 3 hurricane by segment

Question: How likely is it that you would evacuate if the following were forecast to hit your local area?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Likelihood of evacuating for a Category 4 hurricane by segment

Question: How likely is it that you would evacuate if the following were forecast to hit your local area?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Evacuation Intent With and Without Notice

All of the segments are much more likely to evacuate if they receive some kind of official notice to evacuate, but the importance of the notice varies across the segments. For the First Out, 89% say they definitely/probably would evacuate for a Category 2 hurricane if they received an official notice, whereas only 48% say they definitely/probably would without such notice – a 41 percentage point difference. The proportion of the Constrained who say they definitely/probably would leave increases by 26 percentage points in the event that they receive official notice, and proportion of Optimists increases by 50 percentage points. The largest effect occurs for the Reluctant, however – only 6% say they definitely/probably would leave for a Category 2 hurricane without notice, whereas 78% say they definitely/probably would leave if ordered – a 72 percentage point difference. The Diehards are the least likely to be influenced by an official notice; none say they definitely/probably would evacuate without a notice and only 8% say they would with official notice for a Category 2 hurricane.

Would evacuate for a Category 2 hurricane if they do NOT receive official notice (by segment)

Question: If a Category 2 hurricane (100 MPH winds) were going to hit your local area, how likely would you be to evacuate if you did NOT receive an official notice advising everyone in your local area to evacuate?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Would evacuate for a Category 2 hurricane if they receive official notice (by segment)

Question: If a Category 2 hurricane (100 MPH winds) were going to hit your local area, how likely would you be to evacuate if you received an official notice advising everyone in your local area to evacuate?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Intended Evacuation Behavior if Advised By…

Regardless of segment, people say they are most likely to evacuate if a local police or fireman tells them to. Receiving official notice has varying effects on each segment, however. For example, very high proportions of the First Out and the Reluctant (between 80% to 95%) say they would probably or definitely evacuate if told to by an official source (i.e., local Police/Fire, or the Governor’s Office). Slightly fewer of the Optimists say this (71% t 81%), and even fewer of the Constrained (between 23% and 45%). Official notices have little influence on the Diehards – only between 8% and 22% say they would probably/definitely evacuate even if official notice were received.

Probably/Definitely would evacuate if told by… (by segment)

Question: When a hurricane or tropical storm approaches your local area, different people and organizations might ask you to evacuate your home or building. How likely would you be to evacuate if each of the following asked or told you to?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Information Seeking

When a storm approaches, approximately half of coastal residents (51%) say they keep the TV or radio on continuously throughout the day for news and updates about the storm. About one in five (18%) check the forecast every couple of hours, and about one quarter (24%) check at least a few times a day.

% of residents who say they check storm forecasts when a storm is approaching… (by segment)

Question: When a hurricane or tropical storm approaches your local area, how frequently, if ever, do you check the forecasts on TV, radio, and/or on the Internet?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Barriers to Evacuation

The greatest barriers to evacuating vary among different groups of coastal CT residents. Two of the middle groups – the Constrained and the Optimists – perceive more barriers overall than do the First Out, Reluctant, or Diehards. Although the Optimists perceive more barriers even than the Constrained, the Optimists are less likely to believe that these barriers would prevent them from evacuating. To the Constrained, however, issues such as pets and the poor health or disability of a family member are seen as substantial obstacles to leaving in the event of a hurricane.

Pets are a more frequently-cited obstacle to evacuating for the Constrained and the Diehards (28% and 25%, respectively), although they are cited relatively frequently by all groups (17% on average). The poor health or disability of a family member is a common barrier to evacuating for at least three of the groups; the First Out (19%), the Constrained (28%), and the Optimists (36%). During Superstorm Sandy, over half of fatalities occurred among the elderly and those with health or disability issues. In addition, many accidents among the elderly happened after the hurricane had passed, when services were limited.

% of residents facing different barriers to evacuation by segment

Questions: A) Would your pet(s) or animals make it difficult to evacuate (Yes, probably/Yes, definitely)? B) Do you know how to evacuate to a safer location (No, probably not/No, definitely not)? C) Would poor health or disability of you or a member of your household make evacuation difficult (Yes, probably/Yes, definitely)? D) Would you have transportation to evacuate to a safer location (No, probably not/No, definitely not)? E) Would you have enough money to evacuate to a safer location (No, probably not/No, definitely not)?

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.-Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate- communication/article/coastal-ct- hurricane-segments/