Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Hurricane Audience Segments

This report describes the results of an audience segmentation of Connecticut coastal residents (n=996) who say they experienced a hurricane or tropical storm within the past five years (since 2009). The segmentation is based on 39 attitudinal and behavioral variables relating to storm awareness, attitudes, preparedness and media behavior (Appendix A). The study data were weighted, so that the cluster distributions would accurately reflect their proportions in the population. In addition, all variables were standardized to compensate for any possible effect of differences in the scales of the various measures.

The audience analysis resulted in five unique segments: 1) the First Out; 2) the Constrained; 3) the Optimists; 4) the Reluctant; and 5) the Diehards. A short summary of each segment is provided in Figure 1, and brief descriptions of each group’s characteristics and tendencies follow.

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Figure 1. Titles, relative proportion of coastal population, and descriptions for the five audience segments identified from hurricane survey data collected during a 2014 survey of CT coastal residents (Marlon et al. 2015).

First Out

The First Out (21%) are worried about all severe storms, and say they will evacuate for most hurricanes under most circumstances. The First Out perceive the greatest risk from both winds and flooding and are the most likely to believe that they or someone in their households would be at risk of injury or death and personally in danger from storm surge; they also have highest levels of worry when a storm is approaching.

The First Out are less prepared for another storm than average, and less confident that they can keep their family safe. Furthermore, they are more likely to know that they live in an evacuation zone. The First Out are also less likely to perceive any barriers to evacuating. Accordingly, they are more likely to evacuate in the event of a storm of any intensity, with or without an official notice.

Constrained

The Constrained (14%) understand the risks of staying in place during a hurricane, but think they would have trouble evacuating if they wanted (or needed) to. They are less likely to be prepared to go through a hurricane, and less likely to say they could protect their home and family; yet they have a higher than average assessment of all of the risks of riding out a storm. They are more likely to cite barriers to evacuation, including lack of knowledge, transportation or money, poor health, or the inability to transport pets.

Optimists

The Optimists (16%) are unique among the segments in the low probability they assign to a future hurricane of any category happening in the next 50 years; they say that they would evacuate if one did occur, however. If a hurricane does occur, they see significant barriers to evacuating – even more so than the Constrained. While the Constrained tend to say that they won’t evacuate because they can’t, the Optimists are more likely to say that they would evacuate if necessary, but that it won’t be necessary because a hurricane isn’t going to happen.

Reluctant

The Reluctant (27%) are less worried about hurricanes than average. However, they would evacuate if told to do so by a relevant authority – especially local police or fire departments, another local government official, or the Governor’s Office. Like the First Out, the Reluctant do not perceive significant barriers to their evacuation, and with an evacuation order, this group is likely to evacuate at levels similar to those in the First Out segment.

Diehards

The Diehards (22%) are in most ways a mirror image of the First Out. The Diehards feel capable of “riding out” a hurricane in place. They are more likely to feel they were prepared for the last storm they went through, and less likely than average to be worried about an upcoming hurricane. They feel more prepared than average for future storms, and they are more confident that they can protect their family and property. In addition, they have a lower than average assessment of any of the risks of a hurricane, and are more likely to think that it’s safer to stay than to go. They are less likely than average to evacuate for any strength of hurricane, with or without official notice. They would tend to stay in order to safeguard their property – or simply to watch the storm.

Segment Profiles

Demographics

Segments by evacuation zone

Most of the survey respondents in the audience analysis reside in Evacuation Zone A (closest to the shoreline) as defined by the Army Corps of Engineers. The Optimists and Reluctant groups have proportionally fewer members in Zone A (65% and 58%, respectively) than do the other three groups, who all have approximately three quarters living in Zone A (77% of the First Out, 75% of the Constrained, and 77% of the Diehards).

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Risk Perceptions

Home is in an evacuation zone

The First Out have the largest percentage of residents (58%) who understand that their home is located in an evacuation zone. About one third of the Constrained and Diehards (34% and 30%, respectively) understand this, whereas the Optimists and Reluctant are the least likely to (20% and 14%, respectively). Distance from the coast likely explains some of the differences in these results, as the Optimists and the Reluctant have fewer members living in Zone A. The Optimists are the most likely to be unsure as to whether they live in an Evacuation Zone or not (60% are unsure). Note that all the participants surveyed live in an evacuation zone.

Question: Is your home located in an evacuation zone? (Note: only residents living within an evacuation zone were surveyed)

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Estimates of hurricane likelihood

Using a scale of 0% – 100%, residents were asked to estimate the likelihood that hurricanes of different categories would occur along the CT coast in the next 50 years. Responses were similar across all segments except the Optimists, who consistently assigned a lower probability to hurricanes of any category occurring. For example, on average, the Optimists estimated a 59% chance that a Category 1 hurricane would occur in the next 50 years, whereas the other groups estimated over an 80% chance (on average) that this would occur. Moreover, the estimates of all the non-Optimists groups are relatively accurate, whereas the Optimists are substantially underestimate storm likelihoods.

Estimated likelihood that a Category 1, 2, 3, or 4 hurricane will occur in the next 50 years by segment

Question: On a scale of 0%-100%, with 0% being it definitely will NOT happen and 100% being it definitely WILL happen, how likely do you think it is that each of the following types of hurricane will hit somewhere along the Connecticut coast in the next 50 years? Enter your response in the box next to each. If you’re not sure, just give your best estimate; a) Category 1 (80 MPH winds); b) Category 2 (100 MPH winds); c) Category 3 (120 MPH winds); d) Category 4 (140 MPH winds).

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Worry about approaching storms

Levels of worry about hurricanes and tropical storms were measured with a 7-point response scale, with 0 being “Not worried at all” and 7 being “Extremely worried.” Most CT coastal residents express moderate to high levels of worry about approaching severe storms, but the First Out stand apart with higher-than- average levels of worry. The Constrained, Optimists, and Reluctant are less worried than the First Out, and the Diehards report the least worry of all the groups.

Average level of worry when a hurricane is approaching by segment

Question: Generally speaking, when a hurricane or tropical storm is approaching your city or town, how worried do you feel? Please answer using the following scale ranging from 1 (not at all worried) to 7 (extremely worried).

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Understanding of hurricane hazards

Between two thirds and three quarters of every segment believe that high winds are the greatest threat during a hurricane. In reality, storm surge causes the most fatalities during coastal storms, due to drowning. The First Out are the most likely among the five segments to recognize the danger of storm surge, with 29% saying it is the most likely cause of injury or death during a hurricane. In contrast, the Reluctant are the least likely to identify storm surge and the most likely to identify wind as the primary danger. Geography likely plays a role in these results, as 77% of the First Out live in Zone A, closest to the shoreline, whereas fewer of the Reluctant (58%) do. Still, none of the groups recognize that water can be a greater threat to personal safety than winds.

Primary cause of injury and death during a hurricane by segment

Question: To the best of your knowledge, which one of the following is the most likely cause of injury or death during a hurricane? Blown or falling objects from high winds; Rising water levels and high waves (storm surge); Flooding from heavy rains; Accidents during evacuation; Other; Not sure.

Base: Connecticut residents in Coastal Flood Zones A and B who have experienced a storm (n=996). Data collected Sept.- Oct., 2014. Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/coastal-ct-hurricane-segments/

Likelihood of hurricane damage

Expectations about the likelihood of damage from a hurricane were measured using a set of five questions about personal injury, injury to one’s family, home or property damage from flooding and high winds, and risk of isolation due to blocked roads. The First Out perceive the greatest likelihood of damage to themselves and property, whereas the Diehards predict that such damages are less likely. The Constrained, Optimists, and Reluctant fall between these two extremes on the scale. From two thirds (64%, from flooding) to three quarters (74%, from winds) of the First Out expect property damage, and over half (52%) expect their home to be isolated.

Perceptions of hurricane danger by segment

Question: Definitely/probably would. If a Category 2 hurricane (100 MPH winds) were going to hit your local area, how likely do you think it is that each of the following would happen? I or someone in my household would be in danger from storm surge (water from the ocean or Long Island Sound); b) I or someone in my household would be injured or killed.