The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be vitally important for the climate, with results shaping the final two years of climate policy under the Trump administration — from energy reliability and affordability to disaster resilience and recovery, including funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 

Federal, state, and local primary elections — when voters determine who will represent each party on the November ballot — are currently underway and will continue over the next several months. Here, we provide a roundup of Climate Change in the American Mind primary-election-relevant insights and resources — including the fact that global warming remains an important voting priority for many Americans.

In many districts, one party is so dominant that the general election is not very competitive. As a result, primary elections often determine who goes to Congress, and the same is true for state legislatures. This pattern has become even more common with the current wave of partisan redistricting. Further, state and local climate policies will likely become increasingly important given the Trump EPA’s recent efforts to reverse the prior “endangerment finding,” which enables federal regulation of carbon emissions as a pollutant.

Key Findings

• Many registered voters say global warming is a very important issue in their voting decisions. 
• Most registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, including a large majority of Democrats and many liberal/moderate Republicans.
• Most Democrats say they want to hear more from political candidates about efforts to reduce global warming. 
• Majorities of registered voters in nearly every state think Congress should do more to address global warming.
• Most Americans are worried about the cost of living, and many think global warming is affecting it.

Global Warming as a Voting Issue

Our partners at George Mason University’s Center for Climate Change Communication and we have tracked global warming as a voting priority in each presidential and midterm election since 2014. As of Fall 2025, 35% of registered voters overall say that global warming is a “very important” issue for their vote (+3 percentage points since 2014), including 65% of liberal Democrats (+12 percentage points), 56% of moderate/conservative Democrats (+9 percentage points), 15% of liberal/moderate Republicans (-3 percentage points), and 4% of conservative Republicans (-4 percentage points).

The demographic groups most likely to say that global warming will be a very important issue for their vote in the 2026 Congressional elections include Black (non-Hispanic/Latino) voters (53%), urban voters (49%), voters with an annual household income below $50,000 (41%), female voters (40%), and Hispanic/Latino voters (39%). 

How Voters View Candidate Positions on Climate and Energy

As of Fall 2025, we find that: 

• Most registered voters (59%) would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, including nearly all liberal Democrats (95%), a large majority of moderate/conservative Democrats (82%), 42% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 21% of conservative Republicans. 
• Many registered voters (41%) would like to hear more often from political candidates about efforts to reduce global warming, including 79% of liberal Democrats, 57% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 22% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 10% of conservative Republicans.
• A majority of liberal Democrats say that they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy (58%), and 31% of moderate/conservative Democrats say the same. Majorities of liberal/moderate Republicans (81%) and conservative Republicans (76%) say a congressional candidate’s position on renewable energy will not be a deciding factor in their vote. 
• Similarly, a majority of liberal Democrats say that they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels (54%), and 35% of moderate/conservative Democrats say the same. Majorities of liberal/moderate Republicans (77%) and conservative Republicans (62%) say a congressional candidate’s position on fossil fuels will not be a deciding factor in their vote.

Support for Other Climate Policies 

In February 2026, the EPA overturned the “endangerment finding” that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health – a finding that formed the basis for federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. However, we find that most registered voters (74%) support regulating carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant, including 94% of liberal Democrats, 88% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 76% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 45% of conservative Republicans.   

Additionally, majorities of registered voters across all political groups oppose eliminating programs related to global warming: overall, 79% of registered voters oppose eliminating the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 77% oppose ordering all federal agencies to stop researching global warming, 77% oppose ordering all federal agencies to stop providing information about global warming to the public, and 65% oppose prohibiting the construction of new offshore wind farms.

State-Level Insights

Our U.S. Climate Opinion Maps and Factsheets provide data about a wide range of U.S. climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences for each state, county, and metro area, and most Congressional districts as of 2024.

Notably, we find that majorities of adults in 47 states say Congress should do more to address global warming. Majorities in 48 states say that developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the next president and Congress. 

Connecting Climate Change to Other Social Issues

Climate change connects to many other issues, such as the cost of living, the economy, health, disruption of government services, and national security. Understanding how Americans prioritize these other issues can provide valuable insights for climate communicators. 

In an analysis of top public worries in the U.S., we find that 87% of Americans are worried about government corruption (including 54% who are “very worried”) and 86% are worried about the cost of living (48% “very worried”). 

In a follow-up study, we also found that 65% of registered voters think global warming is affecting the cost of living, including 88% of liberal Democrats, 77% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 58% of moderate/conservative Republicans, and 42% of conservative Republicans.

Stories from Yale Climate Connections:

• After a major blow to U.S. climate regulations, what comes next?
• Where things stand on climate change in 2026
• Home electricity bills are skyrocketing. For data centers, not so much.
• Six trillion ways to solve climate change

Methods

The results of the analysis included in the chart are based on data from 7 waves of the twice-yearly Climate Change in the American Mind survey (April 2014, March 2016, March 2018, April 2020, April 2022, April 2024, November 2025) — a nationally representative survey of U.S. public opinion on climate change conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Data were collected using the Ipsos KnowledgePanel®, a representative online panel of U.S. adults ages 18 and older. Questionnaires were self-administered online in a web-based environment.

This analysis includes only registered voters. Data were weighted to align with demographic parameters in the United States. Following Pew Research Center’s approach, generational cohort and year of birth were calculated based on the age of respondents at the time of data collection (Gen Z: 1997-2012; Millennial: 1981-1996; Gen X: 1965-1980; Baby Boomer: 1946-1964; Silent Generation: 1928-1945). Because generational cohort classification was based on respondents’ age at the time they took the survey (rather than birth year, which was not known), some respondents on the cusp of two generations may be miscategorized.

Among the subset of registered voters, references to Republicans and Democrats throughout include respondents who initially identify as either a Republican or Democrat, as well as those who do not initially identify as a Republican or Democrat but who say they “are closer to” one of those parties (i.e., “leaners”) in a follow-up question. The category “Independents” does not include any of these “leaners.” Respondents who do not identify with a party or are not interested in politics are not included in this report due to small sample size.

Group differences were tested for statistical significance using the weighted proportions and unweighted sample sizes of each group. For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. The fielding dates and average margins of error at the 95% confidence interval for the subset of registered voters who participated in the survey, as well subgroups, are:

• November 2025 (November 6 – 14, 2025)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 3.1 percentage points (n = 990)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.2 percentage points (n = 250)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 6.9 percentage points (n = 199)
  • Black (non-Hispanic/Latino) +/- 10.1 percentage points (n = 94)*
  • Urban resident +/- 6.6 percentage points (n = 220)
  • Earns less than $50,000 +/- 7.3 percentage points (n = 182)
  • Female +/- 4.4 percentage points (n = 506)
  • Hispanic/Latino +/- 8.3 percentage points (n = 141)
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher +/- 4.7 percentage points (n = 433)
  • Baby Boomer/Silent +/- 5.1 percentage points (n = 363)
  • Gen Z/Millennial +/- 5.2 percentage points (n = 355)
  • Some college +/- 6.2 percentage points (n = 253)
  • Earns over $100,000 +/- 4.2 percentage points (n = 547)
  • Suburban resident +/- 4.4 percentage points (n = 507)
  • Earns $50,000-$99,999 +/- 6.1 percentage points (n = 261)
  • High school or less +/- 5.6 percentage points (n = 304)
  • Gen X +/- 5.9 percentage points (n = 272)
  • White (non-Hispanic/Latino) +/- 3.8 percentage points (n = 674)
  • Male +/- 4.5 percentage points (n = 484)
  • Rural resident +/- 6.1 percentage points (n = 257)
  • Independent (non-leaning) +/- 10.6 percentage points (n = 85)*
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 8.4 percentage points (n = 137)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 5.8 percentage points (n = 289)
• April 2024 (April 25 – May 4, 2024)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 3.3 percentage points (n = 896)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.4 percentage points (n = 234)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 7.1 percentage points (n = 188)
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 9.4 percentage points (n = 109)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 6.6 percentage points (n = 221)
• April 2022 (April 13 – May 2, 2022)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 3.2 percentage points (n = 908)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.9 percentage points (n = 201)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 7.3 percentage points (n = 178)
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 9.1 percentage points (n = 116)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 6.0 percentage points (n = 266)
• April 2020 (April 7 – 17, 2020)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 3.2 percentage points (n = 911)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.8 percentage points (n = 208)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 7.2 percentage points (n = 183)
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 8.1 percentage points (n = 145)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 6.0 percentage points (n = 264)
• March 2018 (March 7 – 24, 2018)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 3.0 percentage points (n = 1,067)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.0 percentage points (n = 265)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 6.9 percentage points (n = 204)
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 8.0 percentage points (n = 149)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 5.9 percentage points (n = 276)
• March 2016 (March 18 – 31, 2016)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 3.1 percentage points (n = 1,004)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.2 percentage points (n = 249)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 6.9 percentage points (n = 200)
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 8.5 percentage points (n = 132)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 6.0 percentage points (n = 267)
• April 2014 (April 15 – 22, 2014)
  • All U.S. registered voters +/- 2.9 percentage points (n = 1,176)
  • Liberal Democrat +/- 6.9 percentage points (n = 202)
  • Moderate/conservative Democrat +/- 6.8 percentage points (n = 207)
  • Liberal/moderate Republican +/- 7.2 percentage points (n = 187)
  • Conservative Republican +/- 4.9 percentage points (n = 404)

Complete question wording by year:

• How important will the following issues be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2014 Congressional election? [Global warming]
• How important will the following issues be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2016 Presidential election? [Global warming]
• How important will the candidates’ positions on the following issues be when you decide who you will vote for in the 2018 Congressional election? [Global warming]
• As of today, how important will the following issues be to you when you decide who you will vote for in the 2020 Presidential election? [Global warming]
• As of today, how important will the following issues be to you when you decide who you will vote for in the 2022 Congressional elections? [Global warming]
• As of today, how important will the following issues be to you when you decide who you will vote for in the 2024 Presidential election? [Global warming]
• As of today, how important will the following issues be to you when you decide who you will vote for in the 2026 congressional elections? [Global warming]

View Data Tables for accessibility