Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

1. Global Warming as a Voting Issue

1.1 Most Democrats, but few Republicans, say global warming will be a very important issue when deciding who they will vote for in the 2026 congressional elections.

About one-third of registered voters (35%) say global warming will be “very important” to their vote in the 2026 congressional elections, making it the 24^th most highly ranked issue of the 25 issues asked about (refer to data tables, pp. 39-47). This is slightly lower than the percentage who said global warming would be very important to their vote in the 2024 presidential election (39%), the 2022 congressional elections (39%), and the 2020 presidential election (43%).

Among Democrats, about six in ten (61%) say global warming will be a very important issue in determining their vote for Congress. This includes 65% of liberal Democrats and 56% of moderate/conservative Democrats. Additionally, 23% of non-leaning Independents say global warming will be a very important issue in determining their congressional vote (refer to data tables, p. 40). Among Republicans, only 8% say global warming will be a very important issue in determining their vote for Congress, including 15% of liberal/moderate Republicans and 4% of conservative Republicans.

Global warming is the 13^th most important voting issue among liberal Democrats and environmental protection is 9^th. Among moderate/conservative Democrats, global warming ranks 17^th, with environmental protection 12^th. By contrast, global warming is near or at the bottom of congressional voting issues among Republicans.

After each respondent rated how important each of the 25 issues would be to their vote in the 2026 congressional elections, they were shown the list of issues they had rated highest and then asked, “Which one of these issues is the most important issue to you when voting for a candidate?”

Using this method, global warming is the 17^th highest ranked most important voting issue among all registered voters, with 1% saying it is their most important issue (not shown; refer to data tables, p. 48). For context, protecting democracy in the U.S. is the #1 most important issue for registered voters, with 18% saying it is the most important issue, the #2 most important issue is the cost of living (16%), #3 is the economy (12%), #4 is government corruption (6%), and #5 is health care (6%).

Among Democrats, “global warming” is the #9 most important voting issue (2% of Democrats; not shown), with protecting democracy in the U.S. the #1 most important (30% of Democrats). Global warming is the #8 most important issue among liberal Democrats (3%) and #17 among moderate/conservative Democrats (1%). Less than 1% of Republicans overall (including 1% of liberal/moderate Republicans and no conservative Republicans) chose global warming as their most important issue.

1.2 Most registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming.

If given a choice, a majority of registered voters (59%) would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming, while only 13% would prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes action, and 28% say it doesn’t matter either way.

Nearly all liberal Democrats (95%), and a large majority of moderate/conservative Democrats (82%) would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, as would 42% of liberal/moderate Republicans. Finally, although 37% of conservative Republicans would prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes action on global warming, 21% would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action.

1.3 About twice as many registered voters want to hear more (versus less) from political candidates about efforts to reduce global warming.

About four in ten registered voters (41%) say they would like to hear from political candidates about efforts to reduce global warming “much more often” or “somewhat more often,” while 22% say they would like to hear about it “much less often” or “somewhat less often.” Additionally, 22% say they would like to hear about efforts to reduce global warming “about the same as [they] do now” and 14% say it doesn’t matter.

A large majority of liberal Democrats (79%) and most moderate/conservative Democrats (57%) say they would like to hear about efforts to reduce global warming more often, while few say they would like to hear about it less often (3% and 6% respectively). Conversely, more liberal/moderate Republicans would like to hear about efforts to reduce global warming less often (30%) than more often (22%), and about five times as many conservative Republicans want to hear from candidates about it less often (49%) than more often (10%).

1.4 About one in four registered voters will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing renewable energy use and/or decreasing fossil fuel use.

Four times as many registered voters say they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy (28%) rather than decreasing it (7%), while a majority (63%) say it will not be a deciding factor in their vote. A majority of liberal Democrats (58%) say they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy while only 1% say they will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing it. About three in ten moderate/conservative Democrats say they will only vote for a candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy (31%), while few will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing it (5%), and 63% say it will not be a deciding factor. Large majorities of liberal/moderate Republicans (81%) and conservative Republicans (76%) say a congressional candidate’s position on renewable energy will not be a deciding factor in their vote.

Conversely, about twice as many registered voters say they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels (26%) rather than increasing it (12%), while a majority (59%) say it will not be a deciding factor in their vote. A majority of liberal Democrats (54%) say they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels while only 1% say they will only vote for a candidate who supports increasing it. About one-third of moderate/conservative Democrats say they will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels (35%), while few will only vote for a candidate who supports increasing it (4%), and 60% say it will not be a deciding factor. Majorities of liberal/moderate Republicans (77%) and conservative Republicans (62%) say a congressional candidate’s position on fossil fuels will not be a deciding factor in their vote, with about one-third of conservative Republicans saying they will only vote for a candidate for Congress who supports increasing the use of fossil fuels (32%).