Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Executive Summary

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (N = 1,029; including 911 registered voters), this report describes how Democratic, Independent, and Republican registered voters view global warming, climate and energy policies, and personal and collective action. This survey was fielded from April 7 – 17, 2020, during which time a large percentage of the U.S. population was sheltering at home due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic. Social science theory and prior research suggest that people have a “finite pool of worry,”Weber, E.U. (2006). Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet). Climatic Change, 77, 103–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3 such that worrying about one issue will decrease concern about other issues. In a national survey on American Responses to COVID-19, conducted separately from this survey, we found that most American adults were quite worried about COVID-19 in April, and justifiably so given the large number of deaths and serious illnesses it was causing at the time. Given the finite pool of worry hypothesis, we were prepared to find dramatically reduced levels of concern about climate change in this survey. However, the results of the current report on the politics of global warming are remarkably consistent with our recent report on Americans’ global warming beliefs and attitudes. This is not to say that the finite pool of worry hypothesis is correct or incorrect, as we did not formally test it. But what is clear is that public engagement in the issue of climate change remains at or near historic high levels.

It is also important to note that this survey was conducted prior to the killing of George Floyd on May 25, 2020 and the national protests against police brutality and systemic racism that followed. Other polls indicate that race relations and criminal justice reform have greatly increased as voting issue priorities in response to these events. The nation’s political context has changed dramatically since this survey data was collected and the results should be interpreted with that in mind.

Specifically, in this report we found:

Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes

• Most registered voters (75%) think global warming is happening, including 98% of liberal Democrats, 92% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and 69% of liberal/moderate Republicans. Fewer conservative Republicans (47%) think global warming is happening.
• A majority of registered voters (61%) think global warming is caused mostly by human activities. This includes 92% of liberal Democrats, 77% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and half of liberal/moderate Republicans (50%), but only 30% of conservative Republicans.
• Two in three registered voters (66%) are worried about global warming, including 97% of liberal Democrats, 85% of moderate/conservative Democrats, and 55% of liberal/moderate Republicans. Only about one in four conservative Republicans (27%) are worried.

Global Warming as a Voting Issue

• About four in ten registered voters (43%) say a candidate’s position on global warming will be “very important” when they decide who they will vote for in the 2020 presidential election.
• Of 30 issues we asked about, registered voters indicated that global warming is the 13^th most highly ranked voting issue (based on the percentage saying it is “very important”). It is highly ranked among Democrats – it is the 2^nd most highly ranked issue for liberal Democrats and the 8^th most highly ranked issue for moderate/conservative Democrats.
• When then asked to choose their most important issue when voting for a candidate, four percent of registered voters chose global warming, making it the ^#9 highest ranked most important issue. Global warming is the ^#2 most important issue for liberal Democrats (10%) and ^#9 among moderate/conservative Democrats (4%).
• Overall, registered voters are much more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who supports taking action to reduce global warming (49% are more likely and 16% are less likely – a net difference of +33 percentage points).
• Overall, registered voters are also much less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who opposes taking action to reduce global warming (55% are less likely and 10% are more likely – a net difference of -45 percentage points).
• Six in ten registered voters say the candidates’ views on global warming will be either the most important single issue (3%) or one of several important issues (57%) in determining their vote for president in 2020. The percentage of Democrats who say the candidates’ views on global warming will be important in determining their vote for president has increased by 14 percentage points since we asked this question at the same point in the 2016 presidential election cycle (March 2016).

Global Warming and Energy Policies

Majorities of registered voters support specific policies to reduce carbon pollution and promote clean energy. These include:

• Funding more research into renewable energy sources such as solar and wind (87% of registered voters, 96% of Democrats, 85% of Independents, and 78% of Republicans).
• Generating renewable energy on public land in the U.S. (86% of registered voters, 93% of Democrats, 89% of Independents, and 78% of Republicans).
• Providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels (83% of registered voters, 92% of Democrats, 82% of Independents, and 75% of Republicans).
• Regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant (76% of registered voters, 93% of Democrats, 76% of Independents, and 57% of Republicans).

Large majorities of registered voters also support:

• A Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax – described as: “Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax and using the money to reduce other taxes (such as income tax) by an equal amount” – is supported by 68% of registered voters (85% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 49% of Republicans).
• Fee and Dividend – described as: “Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a fee on carbon pollution, and distributing the money collected to all U.S. citizens, in equal amounts, through monthly dividend checks” – is supported by 60% of registered voters (76% of Democrats, 57% of Independents, and 42% of Republicans).

Fewer registered voters support policies to increase fossil-fuel production, including:

• Expanding oil and natural gas drilling off the U.S. coast (50% of registered voters, 31% of Democrats, 55% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans).
• Drilling and mining fossil fuels on public land in the U.S. (45% of registered voters, 23% of Democrats, 45% of Independents, and 69% of Republicans).
• Drilling for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (30% of registered voters, 18% of Democrats, 27% of Independents, and 44% of Republicans).

Additionally:

• Many registered voters (59%; 84% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and 35% of Republicans) would support a U.S. president declaring global warming a national emergency if Congress does not act. Support for this proposition among all registered voters has increased by 14 percentage points since we first asked this question in April 2019.

The Green New Deal

• More than half of registered voters (57%) have heard at least “a little” about the policy proposal called the “Green New Deal.” The Green New Deal proposal has the support of about seven in ten registered voters (72%; 95% of Democrats, 69% of Independents, and 48% of Republicans).

The Paris Climate Agreement

• About three in four registered voters (77%; 94% of Democrats, 76% of Independents, and 58% of Republicans) support U.S. participation in the Paris Climate Agreement. Majorities of Democrats (93%) and Independents (66%), but not Republicans (31%), also oppose President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Agreement.

Individual and Collective Action to Reduce Global Warming

• About one in four registered voters (28%) would support an organization engaging in non-violent civil disobedience against corporate or government activities that make global warming worse, if a person they like and respect asked them to. About one in six registered voters (16%) say they would personally engage in non-violent civil disobedience if asked by a person they like and respect.
• If asked by a person they like and respect, 33% of registered voters would contact government officials about global warming and 29% would meet with elected officials or their staff about it. However, fewer Americans have actually taken these actions in the past year – only 13% say they have contacted an elected official during the past 12 months to urge them to take action to reduce global warming.
• Only 2% of Americans say they are currently participating in a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming. However, an additional 8% say they “definitely would” participate in such a campaign, and another 24% say they “probably would.”

Mitigation and Adaptation Policies

• About half of registered voters (51%) say the U.S. federal government should respond to global warming both by reducing its causes and preparing for its impacts. About three in ten (29%) say the federal government’s main priority should be focusing on the causes of global warming, while seven percent say the main priority should be focusing on its impacts.
• Registered voters hold mixed opinions about what the U.S. federal government should do to assist communities that are becoming uninhabitable due to the effects of global warming. About half of Democrats (49%) think the federal government should help move these communities to safer ground nearby while about four in ten Republicans (42%) think the federal government should let the communities take care of themselves.

Acting on Global Warming

• Across party lines, a majority of registered voters say corporations and industry should do more to address global warming (72% of registered voters, 89% of Democrats, 76% of Independents, and 55% of Republicans).
• At least half of registered voters think citizens (66%), the U.S. Congress (63%), the Republican Party (62%), President Trump (62%), their own member of Congress (58%), the Democratic Party (57%), local government officials (56%), their governor (54%), the media (51%), and/or they themselves (50%) should do more to address global warming.
• A majority of Democrats (83%), about half of Independents (56%), but only about one in five Republicans (22%) think global warming should be a very high or high priority for the president and Congress. Developing sources of clean energy has far stronger support across party lines (92% of Democrats, 71% of Independents, and 47% of Republicans think it should be a very high or high priority).