Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

1. Global Warming Beliefs

1.1 Most Americans think global warming is happening.

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of about 5 to 1.

Seven in ten Americans (73%) think global warming is happening. By contrast, only 14% of Americans think global warming is not happening. Additionally, 14% say they don’t know if global warming is happening (refer to data tables, p. 26).

1.2 When Americans who “don’t know” if global warming is happening are asked for their best guess, more say “yes” than “no.”

Survey respondents who say they “don’t know” whether global warming is happening are then asked to provide their best guess as to whether or not global warming is happening. Over time, this follow-up question has produced a relatively stable pattern in which more of these Americans “lean” toward “yes” than “no” (refer to data tables, p. 27).

When the “leaners,” as determined by this follow-up question, are added to the totals of those who responded “yes” or “no” to the question reported in Section 1.1, we find that a total of 82% of Americans think global warming is happening or lean toward that position, while 18% think global warming is not happening or lean toward that position.

1.3 About half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening.

About half of Americans (52%) are either “extremely” (31%) or “very” (21%) sure global warming is happening (refer to data tables, p. 28). Far fewer (8%) are “extremely” (3%) or “very” (5%) sure global warming is not happening (refer to data tables, p. 29).

1.4 A majority of Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.

A 2023 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which summarizes all of the world’s peer-reviewed scientific studies on climate change, concluded that “Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming.”IPCC. (2023). Summary for Policymakers. In Core Writing Team, Lee, H., & Romero, J. (eds.). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001

A majority of Americans (60%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, 28% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.

1.5 A majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.

A review by Cook and colleaguesCook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewandowsky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced human-caused global warming is happening. A more recent study found that as many as 98% of climate scientists are convinced global warming is happening and human-caused.Myers, K. F., Doran, P. T., Cook, J., Kotcher, J. E., & Myers, T. A. (2021). Consensus revisited: Quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774

A majority of Americans (57%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. By contrast, about one in five (21%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening. Very few Americans (3%) say most scientists think global warming is not happening, and 19% report that they don’t know enough to say (refer to data tables, p. 32).