Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

1. Global Warming Beliefs

1.1. Most Americans think global warming is happening.

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of more than 4 to 1.

Seven in ten Americans (70%) think global warming is happening. By contrast, only 16% of Americans think global warming is not happening. Fourteen percent say they don’t know if global warming is happening (see data tables, p. 32).

1.2. When Americans who “don’t know” if global warming is happening are asked for their best guess, more say “yes” than “no.”

Survey respondents who say they “don’t know” whether global warming is happening in response to the question in Section 1.1 (see data tables, p. 32) are then asked to provide their best guess as to whether or not global warming is happening. Over time, this follow-up question has produced a relatively stable pattern in which more of these Americans “lean” toward “yes” than “no” (see data tables, p. 33).

When the “leaners,” as determined by this follow-up question, are added to the totals of those who responded “yes” or “no” to the question in Section 1.1, we find that a total of 79% of Americans think global warming is happening or lean toward that position, while 21% think global warming is not happening or lean toward that position.

1.3. About half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Very few are as sure it isn’t happening.

About half of Americans (51%) are either “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is happening. Far fewer (10%) are “extremely” or “very” sure global warming is not happening.

1.4. A majority of Americans think global warming is mostly human-caused.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report, written and reviewed by thousands of climate experts worldwide, states: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021): Summary for Policymakers. In Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., & Zhou, B. (eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

More than half of Americans (58%) understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, about one in four (27%) think it is due mostly to natural changes in the environment.

1.5. A majority of Americans understand that most scientists think global warming is happening.

A review by Cook and colleaguesCook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewandowsky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 found that six independent, peer-reviewed studies examining the scientific consensus about global warming have concluded that between 90% and 100% of climate scientists are convinced human-caused global warming is happening. A more recent study found that as many as 98% of climate scientists are convinced global warming is happening and human-caused.Myers, K. F., Doran, P. T., Cook, J., Kotcher, J. E., & Myers, T. A. (2021). Consensus revisited: Quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later. Environmental Research Letters, 16(10). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774

A majority of Americans (58%) understand that most scientists think global warming is happening. By contrast, one in five Americans (20%) think there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening. Very few Americans (3%) believe that most scientists think global warming is not happening.