Ireland Climate Opinion Maps

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Map · Nov 19, 2024

By Emily Goddard, Martial Jefferson, Jennifer Carman, Seth Rosenthal, Anthony Leiserowitz and Jennifer Marlon

Filed under: Behaviors & Actions, Policy & Politics and Beliefs & Attitudes

The Ireland Climate Opinion Maps, produced in partnership with the Irish Environmental Protection Agency show how climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support vary at the county and regional levels. The maps are based on the Climate Change in the Irish Mind study (CCIM), a nationally representative survey collected from May through July of 2023. The maps should be interpreted alongside the 2024 CCIM report as well as the 2022 Climate Change’s Four Irelands report. Further information on the study may be found in the About section.

Explore the maps by clicking on your county or region and compare the results across questions and with other geographic areas. Beneath each map are bar charts displaying the results for every question at whichever geographic scale is currently selected. See the Methodology tab for more information about uncertainty estimates. Also, see the Survey Question Wording tab to see how responses were compiled.

For further details about these maps or what they mean, see the FAQ tab.

About the EPA-Yale Climate Opinion Maps of Ireland

The EPA-Yale Climate Opinion Maps of Ireland show how climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support vary at the county and regional levels. The maps are based on the Climate Change in the Irish Mind study (CCIM), a nationally representative survey collected from May through July of 2023. Climate Change in the Irish Mind is a baseline study of the Irish people’s beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences and behaviors regarding climate change.

Public opinion about climate change has an important influence on decision making about policies to reduce climate change or prepare for the impacts, but opinions can vary widely depending on where people live. So why would we rely on just one national number to understand public responses to climate change at the sub-national level?

Public opinion polling is generally done at the national level because local level polling is very costly and time intensive. Our team of scientists, however, has developed a geographic and statistical model to downscale national public opinion results to the county and regional levels. We can now estimate public opinion across the country, revealing much more detail about regional variation in Ireland’s beliefs, attitudes, and policy support.

The CCIM national level survey shows that 96% of Irish people think climate change is happening. The model estimates from the EPA-Yale Climate Opinion Maps for Ireland show that there is a correspondingly high degree of homogeneity across the country on this issue. The high levels of belief that climate change is happening vary very little across counties.

This research was undertaken by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication in support of the National Dialogue on Climate Action. The findings of this work will be used to inform and support national communications on climate change. It will also be used by climate policy and decision makers, the research community, media and the non-governmental sector.

For further questions about these maps or what they mean, please see our Frequently Asked Questions.

Methodology

This site provides estimates of climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences at the county and regional levels in Ireland – a new source of data on public opinion that can inform national and county-level decision-making, policy, and education initiatives. The estimates are derived from a statistical model using multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) on a large national survey dataset (n = 4,000), along with demographic and geographic population characteristics.

Validating models is essential for producing accurate results. Our estimates were validated through comparisons with the weighted survey results and through cross-validation of the model. Based on comparisons with disaggregated values (i.e., weighted county averages) for counties with at least 150 respondents, the mean absolute error is 1.5 percentage points at the county level. Note that the error inherent in the original national surveys themselves is ±3 percentage points.

The modeling approach used to develop the maps is adapted from Howe, P., Mildenberger, M., Marlon, J.R., and Leiserowitz, A., “Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA,” Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2583. Model specifications for the maps will be detailed in a forthcoming publication.

Survey Question Wording

Model estimates in the maps were derived from public responses to the following survey questions selected from the full Climate Change in the Irish Mind questionnaire. The response categories for many questions were collapsed into a single variable for mapping.

In other cases, the proportion picking a choice that best represents their views from a list will be presented. For example, for the question measuring how worried respondents are about climate change, “Very worried” and “Somewhat worried” were combined into a single measure of “Worried.”

The responses and question segments that have been used in the maps below have been placed in tables and use an orange colour to indicate how they were grouped into positive variables on the maps and a blue colour for negative (“oppose”) variables. These are only visible on the bar charts below the maps. Categories that are not shown or answers that were not used like “Don’t know” were not modelled separately and are greyed out.

Worry About and Personal Importance of Climate Change

How worried are you about climate change?

Response options	On map	On bar chart
Very worried	Yes	Yes
Somewhat worried	Yes	Yes
Not very worried	No	Yes
Not at all worried	No	Yes

How important is the issue of climate change to you personally?

Response options	On map	On bar chart
Extremely important	Yes	Yes
Very important	Yes	Yes
Somewhat important	No	Yes
Not too important	No
Not at all important	No

Climate Change Risk Perceptions

How much do you think climate change will harm…

Sub-question used:	Response options	On map	On bar chart
You personally	A great deal	Yes	Yes
Future generations	A moderate amount	Yes	Yes
People in Ireland	Only a little	No	Yes
People in Ireland	Not at all	No	Yes

Climate change is already harming people in Ireland

Question: When do you think climate change will start to harm people in Ireland?
Response options	On map	On bar chart
They are being harmed now	Yes	Yes
In 10 years	Yes	Yes
In 25 years	No	Yes
In 50 years	No
In 100 years	No
Never	No

Worry About Extreme Weather and Other Hazards

Climate change is affecting weather in Ireland

Question: Which of the following statements best reflects your view?
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Climate change is affecting weather in Ireland	Yes	Yes
Climate change is not affecting weather in Ireland	No	Yes
Climate change isn’t happening	No	Yes
Don’t know	No	No

Future climate change worries

Question: In your opinion, over the next 10 years how much risk does extreme weather pose to your community?
Response options	On map	On bar chart
High risk	Yes	Yes
Moderate risk	Yes	Yes
Low risk	No	Yes
No risk	No	Yes

Present Climate Change worries

Question: How worried are you that the following might harm your local area?
Sub-question used	Response options	On map	On bar chart
Flooding	Very worried	Yes	Yes
Wildfires	Somewhat worried	Yes	Yes
Water shortages	Not very worried	No	Yes
Rising sea level	Not at all worried	No	Yes
Severe storms
Water pollution

Effect of Taking Action on Climate Change

Think climate action will improve economy and provide new jobs

Question: Overall, do you think that taking action to reduce climate change will…
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Improve economic growth and provide new jobs	Yes	Yes
Reduce economic growth and cost jobs	No	Yes
Have no effect on economic growth or jobs	No	No

Think climate action will improve Ireland’s quality of life

Question: Overall, do you think that taking action to reduce climate change will…
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Improve Ireland’s quality of life	Yes	Yes
Reduce Ireland’s quality of life	No	Yes
Have no effect on Ireland’s quality of life?	No	No

Who Should Do More on Climate Change?

Ireland has a responsibility to act on climate change

Question: Now I will read you two statements. Neither may be perfect, but please let me know which comes closer to your point of view.
Response options	On map	On bar chart
We have a responsibility to act on climate change, and Ireland should do what it can to reduce its own greenhouse gas emissions.	Yes	Yes
Ireland is too small to make a difference in climate change; we should let other countries take the lead on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.	No	Yes
Climate change is not happening	No	Yes

Climate change should be a priority of the Government of Ireland

Question: Do you think climate change should be a very high, high, medium, or low priority for the Government of Ireland?
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Very high	Yes	Yes
High	Yes	Yes
Medium	No	Yes
Low	No	Yes

Who should do more about climate change

Question: I am going to read a list of people and organizations who could take action regarding climate change. Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address climate change?
Sub-question used:	Response options	On map	On bar chart
Citizens	Much more	Yes	Yes
Businesses	More	Yes	Yes
	Currently doing the right amount	No	No
	Less	No	Yes
	Much less	No	Yes

Support for Climate-Related Policies

Support or opposition for government policies on fossil fuel taxes

Question: To help address climate change, taxes on fossil fuels will be rising in Ireland over the next 10 years. How much do you support or oppose using the revenues from these taxes for each of the following purposes?
Sub-question used:	Response options	On map	On bar chart
Assisting workers in the fossil fuel industry who may lose their jobs	Strongly support	Yes	Yes
Supporting the further development of new clean energy sources such as marine and hydrogen power	Somewhat support	Yes	Yes
Funding improvements to Ireland’s transport infrastructure such as rail, bus corridors, and cycling and walking paths	Somewhat oppose	No	Yes
	Strongly oppose	No

Support or opposition for policies to help Ireland achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets

Question: How much do you support or oppose the following policies to help Ireland achieve its greenhouse gas reduction targets?
Sub-question used:	Response options	On map	On bar chart
Banning peat, coal and oil for home heating purposes	Strongly support	Yes	Yes
Government grants to encourage residential and commercial building owners to install cleaner and more efficient heating systems	Somewhat support	Yes	Yes
Government grants to make electric vehicles more affordable	Somewhat oppose	No	Yes
Increased Government investment in public transport such as trains instead of motorways	Strongly oppose	No	Yes
Higher taxes on cars that use petrol and diesel

Intentions to Engage in Climate Action

Likely to join a campaign for climate action

Question: How willing or unwilling are you to join a citizens’ campaign to convince leaders in Ireland to take action to reduce climate change?
Response options	On map	On bar chart
You are participating in an effort like this now	Yes	Yes
You definitely would do it	Yes	Yes
You probably would do it	No
You probably would not do it	No	Yes
You definitely would not do it	No	Yes
Not sure	No	No

Intention to reward companies for taking climate action

Question: Over the next 12 months, do you intend to buy a good or service from a company because they have taken steps to reduce climate change …
Response options	On map	On bar chart
More frequently than you are now	Yes	Yes
Less frequently than you are now	No	Yes
About the same as you are now	No	No

Climate Change Beliefs and Knowledge

Know a lot about climate change

Question: How much do you know about climate change? Would you say you …
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Know a moderate amount about it	Yes	Yes
Know a lot about it	Yes	Yes
Know a little about it	No	Yes
Have never heard of it	No	Yes

Do you think climate change is happening?

Response options	On map	On bar chart
Yes	Yes	Yes
No	No	Yes
Don’t know	No	Yes

Most scientists think climate change is happening

Question: Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view?
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Most scientists think climate change is happening	Yes	Yes
There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not climate change is happening	No	Yes
Most scientists think climate change is not happening	No
Don’t know enough to say	No

Climate change is mostly caused by human activities

Question: Assuming climate change is happening, do you think it is…
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Caused mostly by human activities	Yes	Yes
Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment	No	Yes
Caused about equally by human activities and natural changes	No	Yes
Something else	No	No
None of the above because climate change is not happening	No	No

Know that Ireland’s agricultural sector is the largest pollution source

Question: For this next question, I’m going to read you a short list of possible answers and will ask you to pick one. To the best of your knowledge, which one of the following sectors is Ireland’s largest source of the pollution that causes climate change? If you’re not sure, please provide your best guess.
Response options	On map	On bar chart
Agriculture	Yes	Yes
Transport	No	Yes
Energy industries, including power generation and oil and gas refining	No
Residential household and water heating	No
Waste such as landfills, incinerators, and composting	No
Climate change is not happening	No	No

To apply for access to the data, please visit the following page: https://www.epa.ie/our-services/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/climate-change-in-the-irish-mind-open-data/

FAQs on Climate Opinion Maps

How can I access the downscaled climate change opinion estimates?

To apply for access to the data, please visit the following page: https://www.epa.ie/our-services/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/climate-change-in-the-irish-mind-open-data/

What do these maps depict?

The maps depict estimates of the percentage of adult residents of Ireland (age 18 and over) who hold particular beliefs, attitudes, and policy preferences about climate change. The estimates were generated from a statistical model that incorporates actual survey responses but combines these responses with demographic data from the Ireland Central Statistics Office (CSO) (Census 2016 Reports – CSO – Central Statistics Office) to estimate opinions for different groups of people based on information such as their gender, age, and county of residence.
Where do the survey data underlying the estimates come from?

The data underlying the maps come from a large national survey dataset (4,000 respondents) collected during May through July of 2023 as part of a collaboration between the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC). Reports using the individual-level survey data are available here:
- Climate Change in the Irish Mind report
- Climate Change’s Four Irelands audience segmentation report
What does the grey color mean on some of the bars beneath the maps?

The grey area reflects people who provided valid responses such as refusal to answer a question, saying they “Don’t know,” or gave an answer that was not modeled (e.g., “Currently doing the right amount”). We do not provide specific values for the grey areas because we did not develop estimates for these particular responses.
Do the maps account for differences in population density across the country?

The type of map used in this tool is called a choropleth map, which means the colours on the maps reflect the percentage of the population in a given geographic unit who would answer each question as indicated. These kinds of maps are used to represent everything from election results to census and economic data (e.g., per capita income or unemployment rates). Thus, it is important to keep in mind that some geographic areas may be large, but have few residents (e.g., Mayo), while other geographic areas may be small, but have many residents (e.g., Dublin). For reference, The Central Statistics Office has published the relevant population density information.
Do these maps reflect changes in opinions due to recent extreme weather events like Storm Ophelia/Storm Barra?

Perhaps. The maps may reflect the impacts that specific extreme weather events had on public opinion in a given geographic unit. If public opinion in a particular area has been influenced by local events it is possible that the model would detect such an influence. However, data from specific events or types of events are not explicitly built into the model as predictor variables.