Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

1. Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes

1.1. Increasing number of Americans think global warming is happening.

An increasing number of registered voters think global warming is happening. Three in four (73%, up 7 points since Spring 2014) now think it is happening. Large majorities of Democrats—liberal (95%,) and moderate/conservative (80%)—think it is happening, as do three in four Independents (74%, up 15 points since Spring 2014) and the majority of liberal/moderate Republicans (71%, up 10 points).

By contrast, only 47% of conservative Republicans think global warming is happening. Importantly, however, there has been a large increase in the number of conservative Republicans who think global warming is happening. In fact, conservative Republicans have experienced the largest shift of any group—an increase of 19 percentage points over the past two years.

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1.2. Half or more Democrats, Independents, and liberal/moderate Republicans think global warming is caused by human activities.

Just over half of registered voters (56%) think that global warming is caused mostly by human activities, with an additional 4% who say that human activities and natural changes both play a role. A large majority of Democrats (75%, and 82% of liberal Democrats), half of liberal and moderate Republicans (49%), but only 26% of conservative Republicans think global warming is mostly human-caused.

1.3. Few registered voters understand the scientific consensus on global warming.

A recent review study by Cook and colleagues[1] found that all peer-reviewed studies about the extent of the scientific consensus about global warming have reached similar conclusions: between 90% and 100% of climate experts are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening. The most rigorous of these studies have found that 97% of climate scientists are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening.

Public understanding of the scientific consensus on global warming, however, is different than the expert consensus. Only about one in six registered voters (16%) estimate that 90% or more climate scientists are convinced. Liberal Democrats (38%) are nearly 10 times more likely than Republicans (4%) to understand that the scientific consensus is 90% or higher, but nonetheless a majority of liberal Democrats do not yet understand this either.

^[1] Cook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P. T., Anderegg, W. R. I., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E. W., Carlton, J. S., Lewendowsky, S., Skuce, A. G., Green, S. A., Nuccitelli, D., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., & Rice., K. (2016). Consensus on consensus: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters 11(4). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002

1.4. A large majority of Democrats, and half of Independents and liberal/moderate Republicans, are “worried” about global warming.

Over half (57%) of Americans say they are “very” or “somewhat” worried about global warming. Liberal Democrats are the most worried (88%), followed by moderate/conservative Democrats (67%). About half of Independents (49%) and liberal/moderate Republicans (48%) are worried about global warming. Relatively few conservative Republicans (21%) are worried.