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Global Warming and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Reading Notes


  • This report was prepared prior to Ted Cruz’s (R) suspension of his presidential campaign. Mr. Cruz’s supporters are the most likely to think climate change is not happening.
  • This report is based only on registered voters.
  • References to Republicans and Democrats throughout include registered voters who do not initially identify as Republicans or Democrats but who say they “lean” toward one party or the other in a follow-up question. The category “Independents” does not include any of these “leaners.”
  • Throughout the report, candidates are listed in alphabetical order within party.
  • In all tables and charts, bases specified are unweighted, but percentages are weighted.
  • Weighted percentages for political party identification: Democrats including leaners: 47%, Independents excluding leaners: 10%, Republicans including leaners: 38%.
  • Weighted percentages in response to the following question: “If the November, 2016 presidential election were held today, which candidate, if any, would be your first choice?” [The five remaining major party candidates as of March 18, 2016 were listed in random order]: Hillary Clinton: 22%, Bernie Sanders: 16%, Ted Cruz: 9%, John Kasich: 8%, Donald Trump: 15%, Someone else: 2%, Haven’t decided/Not sure: 25%, Probably won’t vote: 3%.
  • In the appendix tables, note that: — = 0; * = >0 but <0.5;  ** = Caution: small base.