Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

1. Global Warming as a Voting Issue

1.1. Most Democrats, but few Republicans, say global warming will be a very important issue when deciding who they will vote for in the 2024 presidential election.

About four in ten registered voters (39%) say global warming will be “very important” to their vote in the 2024 presidential election, making it the 19^th most highly ranked issue of the 28 issues asked about (refer to data tables, pp. 38-47). This the same as the percentage who said global warming would be very important to their vote in the 2022 congressional elections (39%), and similar to the percentage who said so in the 2020 presidential election (43%).

Among Democrats, about six in ten (62%) say global warming will be a very important issue in determining their vote for president. This includes 70% of liberal Democrats and 51% of moderate/conservative Democrats. Additionally, about one in three non-leaning Independents (35%) say global warming will be a very important issue in determining their presidential vote (refer to data tables, p. 39). Among Republicans, only about one in ten (11%) say global warming will be a very important issue in determining their vote for president, including 19% of liberal/moderate Republicans and 8% of conservative Republicans.

Global warming is the 4^th most important voting issue among liberal Democrats and environmental protection is 6^th. Among moderate/conservative Democrats, global warming ranks 14^th, with environmental protection 8^th. By contrast, global warming is near the bottom of presidential voting priorities among Republicans.

After each respondent rated how important each of the 28 issues would be to their vote in the 2024 presidential election, they were shown the list of issues they had rated highest and then asked, “Which one of these issues is the most important issue to you when voting for a candidate?”

Using this method, global warming is the 12^th highest ranked most important voting issue among all registered voters, with 3% saying it is their most important issue (refer data tables, p. 48). For context, “the economy” is the #1 most important issue for registered voters, with 15% saying it is the most important issue.

Among Democrats, global warming is the #7 most important voting issue (6% of Democrats), with maintaining free and fair elections as the #1 most important (16% of Democrats). Global warming is the #4 most important issue among liberal Democrats (8% of liberal Democrats) and #10 among moderate/conservative Democrats (3% of moderate/conservative Democrats). No Republicans chose global warming as their most important issue.

1.2. Most registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming.

If given a choice, a majority of registered voters (62%) would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming, while only 15% would prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes action, and 23% say it doesn’t matter either way.

Nearly all liberal Democrats (97%), a large majority of moderate/conservative Democrats (81%), and a majority of Independents (62%; refer to data tables, p. 49) would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, as would 47% of liberal/moderate Republicans. In contrast, only 17% of conservative Republicans would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, while 46% would prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes action.